Winchester, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS65 KVEF 302323
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
423 PM PDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Strong winds are expected across the region on Monday
as a powerful spring weather system moves through. Patchy blowing
dust can also be expected. Temperatures will peak today and
tomorrow before cooling through the remainder of the week.
Overall, dry conditions are expected for most of the region
through the week, though a few light showers are possible in the
southern Great Basin at times, and some light snow is possible in
the Sierra Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Skies have largely cleared out early this afternoon behind a
quick moving shortwave which moved through this morning. Winds
across the region remain elevated thanks to an enhanced 700mb flow
of 30-40 knots across the region. Strongest winds have been across
the Western Mojave Desert near Barstow, where it`s currently
gusting to 46 mph at Barstow-Daggett Airport. A few more isolated
gusts to near 40 mph or higher have been noted in other areas
including Kingman and Desert Rock, though overall wind gusts of
that magnitude have been fairly limited. Breezy conditions will
continue through the afternoon with some increasing high clouds
moving in from the west this evening.

The main show is still expected tomorrow as a deep trough
approaches the Pacific Northwest Coast before settling into the
Great Basin by Tuesday morning. As this occurs, a strong 80-90kt
500mb jet will sag into the southern Sierra and extend east into
southern Nevada. This jet will translate to 50-60 knots of 700mb
cross-barrier flow hitting the Sierra and Spring Mountains in the
evening. Forecast soundings continue to depict a favorable profile
for downslope winds, with a ridgetop level stable layer, very
strong winds through the vertical column reaching as low as 900mb,
and a favorable wind orientation to maximize downslope flow. This
leads to continued high confidence in strong winds across parts
of southern Nevada, and the Owens Valley/Sierra region where a
High Wind Warning has been posted. Strongest winds in this
particular wind event will be focused nearest terrain features,
though waves will tend to propagate eastward in waves, so wind
speeds may pulse up and downwards through the afternoon and
evening. For the Owens Valley, the greatest risk of strong winds
will be along and west of the US-395 corridor and south of Big
Pine. For Las Vegas, strongest winds are most likely across the
western and southern portions of the metro. Within these areas,
gusts over 60 mph will be possible.

Elsewhere, widespread windy conditions will also be expected, just
not quite as intense without the downslope enhancement. Widespread
wind advisories are in effect for Wednesday, and their coverage
has been expanded to include the southern Great Basin and Morongo
Basin/Yucca Valley areas. Winds will gradually sag southward
Monday night to become limited to mainly San Bernardino County
Tuesday where the wind advisories remain valid through Tuesday
night.

Aside from the wind, some light precipitation is expected on
Monday across the Sierra as Pacific moisture within the fast
Pacific flow is intercepted by the topography. Not expecting
especially noteworthy precipitation amounts, but 1-3 inches of
snow will be possible above 7000 feet in the Sierra, and some very
light spillover showers will be possible into the Owens Valley.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Once the leading edge of the trough pushes through on Tuesday, the
risk for impactful winds shifts to western and southern San
Bernardino County. Places like Barstow and Twentynine Palms have
over a 75% chance of seeing 40+ mph gusts, whereas the rest of the
CWA has generally 50% or less odds. With the trough now firmly over
our region at this point, a cooler airmass will take hold. Forecast
highs on Tuesday are some 8-12 degrees cooler than Monday`s, and
around 10 degrees below normal for early April.

Ensemble guidance shows the trough lingering over our area as it
gets reinforced with additional shortwaves coming out of the PacNW.
This will keep temperatures below normal and promote continued
breezy conditions. However, the persistent troughing will limit the
strength of surface pressure gradients and thus winds. Both raw and
bias-corrected probabilistic guidance show low to moderate (20-
50%) probabilities of 40+ mph gusts across the CWA, with the
higher percentages in western/southern San Bernardino County.

Precipitation-wise, still not looking very promising. Best chances
(10-30%) continue to be in the Sierra and southern Great Basin
Tuesday through Thursday. Late in the week, ensemble guidance seem
to be coming into better agreement on the trough`s evolution, having
it wrap up into a closed low. Where exactly the center of the low
sets up and how much moisture can get pulled in underneath the cold
air aloft will dictate precipitation chances during this time. Any
precipitation that does develop will likely be showery and more
isolated in nature, generally favoring the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty
west to southwest winds are expected through the TAF period
tonight and Tuesday. Currently, west winds gusting to around 25KT
have spread across the valley. This should continue through the
early evening before winds veer more south and drop slightly with
gusts closer to 20KT possible by 03Z. These lower winds will be
short lived as periods of strong southwest winds are expected
starting at 09Z tonight and continuing through Monday early
overnight. Increasing confidence that these winds will impact the
valley terminals in waves with occasional southwest to west winds
gusting to 30KT or more will then give way to periods of lighter
winds that may become south to southeast. High confidence that
these varying winds between gusty southwest to light from the
south will occur at times between 09Z tonight to about 06Z
Tuesday, however exact timing and duration of these waves are
uncertain and difficult to predict. Plan for rapidly changing and
varying wind conditions tonight and Monday. The strongest winds
should be after 18Z Tuesday when gusts over 40KT are possible at
all terminals. Blowing dust is possible and may reduce visibility
at times, especially during the periods of higher winds. Winds
will diminish Monday night after 09Z and will not be as strong on
Tuesday. Clouds will remain at or above 20kft and precipitation
is not expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Southwest to west winds
gusting 20-30KT will continue across the region through this
evening. The strongest winds today will be through the KDAG area
where west winds will gust over 35KT at times until around midnight
when winds gusts will drop to 30KT. West winds gusting over 25KT
will continue at KBIH until sunset when winds should become
northeast for tonight around 10KT until until they increase out of
the southeast Monday morning. Tonight, winds will diminish in the
Colorado River Valley to around 10KT after sunset as south to
southeast winds develop for the overnight period. West to southwest
winds will increase Monday morning in many locations, with stronger
winds expected on Monday compared to today as gusts 35-45 KT
expected. The strongest winds on Monday will be through the KDAG
area into the OWens Valley and southern Nevada, including KBIH and
Las Vegas valley airports. Occasional clouds around 15kft-20kft
are expected at times. Snow will develop on the Sierra crest but
should remain in the terrain and is currently not expected to
spill into the Owens Valley, though CIGs may drop to 8000ft there
after 16Z Monday morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Nickerson

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